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"We are going to see a substantial growth in the fractional industry. Because of the current economy, many of those people who would have otherwise purchased a wholly-owned vacation home will turn to the alternative vacation home market and fractional real estate will be there waiting."

Click to download Sherman Potvin's 2009 outlook

Aix en Provence, Provence
French fractionals for babyboomers

According to research by Ragatz Associates, total fractional sales volumes increased from nearly $90 million to almost $2.5 billion between 1999 and 2007; and fractional sales dollars grew 7.8 percent in 2006 and 8.3 percent in 2007. Because of the underlying demographics this trend will continue - even after a few correction years.

There are 50,000 households in the United States that own a fractional property. Ragatz estimates that given an income threshold for most fractional buyers of around $200,000, the market size is over 5 million households, with a current penetration level of 1% - expected to reach 5 percent in five years and 10 percent within a decade. Baby boomers will form a large segment of this growth as they reach retirement age and want a second home within their means - possibly abroad.

If in 4 years just 1% of US customers choose to buy a fractional property in France, the addressable market will be 1,500 shares in 2013 - worth approximately $300 million.



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